Biden's Approval Rating: A Cause for Concern or Overstated Peril?

President Joe Biden's approval rating has been hovering in the low 40s, which is similar to some of his predecessors who were denied second terms. This fact is a serious warning sign for his re-election bid, but there are also reasons to think his peril may be overstated. Biden's approval rating is roughly even with past presidents who have both won and lost, but it's important to note that a lot can change between mid-April of the year before the election and the next November.

Biden ousted Donald Trump from the White House thanks to a coalition that combined the entire Democratic base with key swing groups who don’t identify with either party. However, both of these blocs are showing significant cracks in their approval of Biden. Biden's job performance is being viewed unfavorably by independents, suburban voters, and self-described moderates, groups that he won over in the 2020 election. He is also struggling with key subgroups of the Democratic base, including Black voters.

Despite Biden's weak approval ratings, it's worth noting that he's not facing a credible threat for the presidential nomination. While Trump could be the possible "alternative" to Biden next November, his personal favorability ratings are generally worse than Biden's. Therefore, the extent to which Biden’s poor job rating endangers his likely re-election bid is not just an academic exercise.